Let me begin by telling you that I have a knack for predicting huge upsets -- just ask anyone who talked to me the week before the highly favored Rams played the Patriots in the Super Bowl a few years back. So before you call me crazy after reading some of the following predictions, keep in mind that the Academy is rarely as predictable as we tend to think they are.

Best Picture & Director: I decided to combine these two categories because history has shown that they've been treated more like Best Picture A and Best Picture B, and whenever the Academy wants to award two movies they almost always make the split right here (as was the case with SAVING PRIVATE RYAN and SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE). To date, every Oscar prediction piece I've read has stated how THE RETURN OF THE KING and Peter Jackson are virtually a lock to win. In fact, this was treated as a foregone conclusion even before the movie came out, which is exactly what leads me to believe it won't happen. THE RETURN OF THE KING may be the second film to ever surpass one billion dollars worldwide, but it won't win both. Not long before the final ballots were mailed, Academy members watched the film win a handful of Golden Globes and won't feel as much pressure to acknowledge it. Expect a split with Clint Eastwood's MYSTIC RIVER, which received all of its six nominations in major categories and had three of its stars nominated. Remember, the Academy has traditionally placed a lot of emphasis on the performances, and Eastwood is respected by nearly everyone he knows.


Best Actor: Sean Penn, Bill Murray and Johnny Depp all deserve to win, and it's a shame that only one of them actually will. Oh, and Ben Kingsley and Jude Law were pretty good too, although neither has a chance this year. I agree with the theory that Penn and Murray might cancel each other out, allowing Depp to get just enough votes to win, but my gut is telling me Penn will finally receive his first Oscar because he's been nominated multiple times in the past without ever winning. His 21 GRAMS performance as a supplement certainly doesn't hurt his cause either. People have suggested Murray's Golden Globe speech helped him a lot, but if that's true then I also believe Eastwood's speech on Penn's behalf (in which he talked about how Penn is one of those actors who's always so good we take him for granted) would be just as effective.

Best Actress: Charlize Theron is the deserving favorite, and if she doesn't win it will be far more surprising than Peter Jackson going home empty-handed. Within the acting categories, Theron seems like the only sure bet.

Supporting Actor: Tim Robbins is the favorite for his wonderful performance in MYSTIC RIVER, and will probably follow-up his Golden Globe victory with an Oscar. However, I wouldn't be too surprised if Ken Watanabe stole this category the same way he stole THE LAST SAMURAI from Tom Cruise. Will it happen? I doubt it, but it's very possible. Benicio Del Toro gave the best performance of the group in 21 GRAMS, but he doesn't stand a chance having just won an Oscar three years ago.


Supporting Actress: Two months ago Renee Zellweger seemed to be an absolute lock in this category for COLD MOUNTAIN, but since the nominations were handed out Shohreh Aghdashloo (HOUSE OF SAND & FOG) has made this race far more interesting. This is essentially a battle between an actress who turns in a very subtle, moving performance and an actress who has paid her dues and tried something a little different this year. More often than not the Academy ignores subtlety and respects past nominations, so I say Zellweger will win.

Original Screenplay: Even though LOST IN TRANSLATION was more of a director's piece than a great screenplay, because Sofia Coppola acted as both writer and director leads me to believe she'll win. This will also be a way of acknowledging the film if it gets shutout elsewhere.

Adapted Screenplay: This one's a toss-up between Brian Helgeland for his adaptation of MYSTIC RIVER, Gary Ross for SEABISCUIT, and Robert Pulcini and Shari Springer Berman for AMERICAN SPLENDOR. Because SEABISCUIT managed to land a Best Picture nomination and Gary Ross also directed the film, he'll probably win.

Foreign Language Film: I haven't seen all of the nominees so I don't have much perspective here, but I'm guessing it'll go to THE BARBARIAN INVASIONS (Canada).

Best Documentary: This will be a battle between CAPTURING THE FRIEDMANS, MY ARCHITECT, and THE FOG OF WAR. I'm guessing the winner will be CAPTURING THE FRIEDMANS, which has been slightly higher profile than the its competitors.

Best Cinematography: The truth is any of the nominees in this category could win, including John Seale for making COLD MOUNTAIN so beautiful or Cesar Charlone for CITY OF GOD, but I think the award will go to Russell Boyd for making MASTER & COMMANDER look great under less-than-desirable conditions.


Film Editing: Not only does CITY OF GOD deserve to win, I think it will. Consider it the Academy's way of acknowledging a film that was obviously respected, given that it received four major nominations despite flying under the radar.

Original Score: Overall I wasn't impressed with the selection of musical scores in 2003, so I'm guessing this will go to THE RETURN OF THE KING by default.

Original Song: I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Annie Lennox, Fran Walsh, and Howard Shore win for "Into the West" from THE RETURN OF THE KING, but I'm betting Sting will win for "You Will Be My Ain True Love" from COLD MOUNTAIN.

Best Sound: RETURN OF THE KING deserves to win and will.

Sound Editing: These categories are often tough to predict, so I'll just go with MASTER & COMMANDER because it was the only one of the nominees also in the Best Picture category.

Animated Feature: THE TRIPLETS OF BELLEVILLE could pull off a huge upset, but expect the Academy to finally award the impressive Pixar crew for FINDING NEMO.

Visual Effects: THE RETURN OF THE KING, deservingly so.

Art Direction: I was disappointed to see BIG FISH get snubbed in this category, but the remaining choices are still quite impressive. THE RETURN OF THE KING will probably win, especially if it doesn't win both of the top categories as I've predicted, but THE LAST SAMURAI or MASTER & COMMANDER could pull off an upset.

Posted February 25, 2004 | link