With mixed reviews and really not a whole lot of momentum going for it, S.W.A.T. still found a way to pull in an impressive 37 million in its opening weekend. And even though the film "only" cost 70 million to produce, people are already calling it a hit. This is significant because it shows the widening disparity between what is perceived about a film's performance at the box office and what the actual numbers have to say when all is said and done.

Most box office analysts will lead you to believe this summer has been all about the opening weekend, and they'll probably refer to the record-breaking number of films to open over 30 million in only a few months as sufficient evidence. Sorry, but this simply isn't true. If anything, I'd say this summer has been a solid lesson in good old fashioned box office longevity and word of mouth. When determining if a film is going to be a hit or miss, the true test has been the second, third, and particularly the fourth weekend. Everyone is so busy watching how the new films open from week to week they forget to look at what really matters.

Take for example the two Jerry Bruckheimer releases, Pirates of the Caribbean and Bad Boys II. If you ignore the fact that Pirates opened on a Wednesday, both films made about 46 million in their opening weekends. A great start, no question; and of course they were both concluded to be instant hits. But how do things look almost one month after the release of Bad Boys II? Very different. This past weekend (August 8 - 10) Pirates, which was released two and a half weeks earlier, made 13 million while Boys only pulled in 6 million. By the time both films leave theaters, in all likelihood one will have made more than twice as much as the other. In fact, if Michael Bay's relentless action flick continues to slide the way it has over the past two weeks, it'll still be in the red until you factor in DVD sales and rentals. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

Posted August 13, 2003 | link